Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 3 Mar 2025 · owen-1636

Quote

Not a forecast

“The best predictor of a pilot turning into a contract and subsequently, a major program is the stability of leadership in the company.”
· Getting to a Value-Based Contract with A Major Payor · substack post

Footnote warning that what payer insiders say they want and what they can sign differ; leadership changes killed pilots at the author's companies, so he names leadership stability as the predictor of a pilot becoming a contract.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.

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