Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 Feb 2025 · owen-1555

Quote

Vague or promotional

“An important note: I'm highly dubious that, absent a much larger data set, we would see a difference.”
· Does "Help" for Kids After Self-Harm Reduce Suicide Risk? · substack post

Discussion of the Mughal/Young et al. 2025 meta-analysis (JCPP Advances) of therapeutic interventions after adolescent self-harm. The pooled data showed no difference in mortality. The author doubts that a mortality difference would appear in future work unless the data set were much larger, because death and suicide are rare outcomes in youth.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.

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