Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

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Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 27 Jan 2025 · owen-1549

Quote

Not a forecast

“Yes, your ADHD medication might kill you. But, it's more likely your ADHD will kill you on it's own if left untreated. The deaths happen early, and the risks happen late.”
· Does Adult ADHD Lead to Early Death? Spoiler Alert: Yes. · substack post

Summary of the author's earlier essay 'Is My ADHD Medication Killing Me?', restated in a post reviewing a UK matched-cohort study (O'Nions et al., 2025) that found 6.78 (men) and 8.64 (women) years of reduced life expectancy in adults with diagnosed ADHD. General risk claim: untreated ADHD is more likely to kill than stimulant medication.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.

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