Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“most academic fraud will never be discovered—the most likely outcome for fraudsters is a long and successful career.”
· How Date a Supermodel, Thanks To Academic Fraud in Medicine · substack post

Essay on incentives for academic fraud (Ariely, Gino, Wakefield, paid authorship, Elsevier margins). The author predicts most fraud stays undetected and fraudsters typically enjoy long, successful careers.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.