Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“There are plenty of angry people armed with guns in America, and they're watching somebody get lionized in the press, and on social media, all day long, being called a hero. Maybe we can imagine that's not going to spread? But I very much think it will. When we cheer for murder, we get more murder.”
· An Open Letter to UnitedHealth Group after Declining My Employment Application: Redux · substack post

New intro (2024-12-07) after the CEO of UnitedHealthcare was murdered in New York and the public celebrated. The author argues that lionizing the killer in the press and on social media rewards the behavior ('when you pay attention to behavior, you get more of it') and predicts the violence will spread: 'Maybe we can imagine that's not going to spread? But I very much think it will.'

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.