Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Vague or promotional

“It may be that the driving force of CMS—which, to be very clear, has been people not wanting to do something stupid and get canned—might not be so important anymore. If everyone is maybe getting fired from all government, you may be able to incentivize different behaviors.”
· Letters to Dr. Oz · substack post

Letter to Dr. Oz on CMS culture. The author hedges that CMS staff's fear-of-firing motive may weaken under mass firings, letting the administrator incentivize different behaviors.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.