Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 4 Sep 2024 · owen-1217

Quote

Not a forecast

“Locked units? No! The data says it’s between implausible and impossible that current treatment will help.”
· Checking the Locks: Avoiding the Horrors of Involuntary Psychiatry · substack post

Closing argument that insurers should not pay for locked inpatient psychiatric units. The author cites open-door studies (Norway RCT, German 15-year observational study) and antidepressant onset-of-action data to argue that short locked stays with medication as the mainstay cannot plausibly help patients.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.

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