Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 10 Aug 2024 · owen-1191

Quote

Outside the five areas

“If they just rubber stamp things and someone dies, or something awful happens, someone is going to come back and make a documentary on Netflix like they did about Perdue Pharma and highlight the FDA official who signed off on the thing after some dubious party.”
· MDMA-AT: We Welcome The FDA to Phase 3 Camp At Burning Man! · substack post Paid

The author quotes his own August 1, 2024 statement on the Psychiatry Tomorrow Podcast, made before the FDA's complete response letter on MDMA-AT, as a call he got right ('I knew it'): a conditional about FDA reviewers' incentive not to rubber-stamp approvals.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.

← Earlier · Later → · All statements