Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 26 Jun 2024 · owen-1141

Quote

Vague or promotional

“Either be prepared to spend much, much much more, because that's on average what it costs, or it may be that you don't have the access to capital necessary to bring a new therapeutic to market in the United States?”
· Saving MDMA VII: This isn't The First Drug to Have Problems Getting Approved · substack post Paid

After citing a 2020 study putting the median cost of bringing a new drug to market at $1.3b and noting Lykos has spent only a tiny fraction: Lykos will need to spend far more, or may lack the capital to bring MDMA-AT to market.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.

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