Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“There will be no meaningful punishments brought to bear by the Department of Justice. It would bankrupt United Healthcare.”
· United Healthcare v. HIPAA · substack post

On the Change Healthcare cyber attack (Change is a UnitedHealth Group subsidiary). The author predicts the federal government (DOJ) will not impose meaningful HIPAA penalties on United Healthcare for the breach, because a fine sized to the breach would bankrupt the company and the company donates heavily to politicians.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.