Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Vague or promotional

“Unfortunately, the more exciting a scientific field, like, again, psychedelic medicine? This also biases our outcomes to falsehood”
· Why Science is Often Bad · substack post

The author applies Ioannidis's corollaries (greater financial interests and hotter fields make findings less likely to be true) to psychedelic medicine, implying its research findings are more likely to prove false. Dan Karlin (CMO, Mind Medicine) is quoted nearby on disclosures.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.