Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“I have learned that when there is a best-selling drug, there is a federal case brought for illegal marketing. These cases are routinely settled by the DOJ for way, way less money than the drug made thanks to said illegal marketing.”
· Abilify V: Federal Enforcement · substack post

'The Federal Settlements' section of Abilify V. The author, as a self-described dilettante historian of pharmaceuticals, states a general pattern: every best-selling drug attracts a federal illegal-marketing case, and the DOJ routinely settles for far less than the drug earned; he adds that this may be a rational strategy for the companies. Illustrated by the 2007 $515m BMS settlement and the 2008 $4m Otsuka settlement over Abilify.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.