Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Well, I suspect this is going to bite The Lord of Defamation really hard… ... This is a plausible outcome, but not a certain one.”
· Tr*mp's Financial Hell Through Automatic Defamation Judgments · substack post

Legal/math post on New York civil judgments against Donald Trump (9% statutory interest, escrow required for appeals, about $450M civil fraud judgment in the case brought by AG Letitia James). 'This' is the Carroll v. Trump II precedent that a second defamation of an adjudicated matter skips liability and goes straight to damages. The author expects it to cost Trump heavily.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.