Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“already an FDA breakthrough and will be discussed at Rapid Acting Mental Health Treatment 2024 this Sunday!”
· "Bad Sleep:: -1" · substack post

After citing nightmares as an independent risk factor for suicide, the author praises the Nightware device (effect size 0.88 for nightmare disorder), says it is already an FDA breakthrough, and says it will be discussed at his Rapid Acting Mental Health Treatment 2024 event on Sunday Jan 7, 2024. He adds that no commercial payers pay for it.

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.