Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“It’s a hint that the drug is much more powerful than we suspected when deciding how many people to enroll. There are phase 3 differences in phase 2 size trials. That is a big deal.”
· Mushrooms: The Original Christmas Miracle? · substack post

Implicit call: because COMP360 showed statistically significant remission in an underpowered phase 2b trial, the author expects the drug to show a large effect in phase 3-scale testing.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.