Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“But human minds are bad at math, and math-ready AI? That has the potential to solve its miscalculation problem.”
· We Shouldn't Fear Artificial General Intelligence more than Human General Intelligence · substack post

Discussing reports that OpenAI's Q* model made progress on math. The author says AI is currently bad at math but math-capable AI could solve its own miscalculation problem, unlike humans.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.