Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 26 Oct 2023 · owen-0743

Quote

Not a forecast

“Simply put, if the blind doesn't make it impossible to tell group assignment because the placebo and the active agent feel enough alike that people can't tell the difference. It's not a double-blind trial. Yes, I'm looking at you, psychedelic medicines.”
· AACAP Dispatch, Day 2: Don't Break the Blind! · substack post

Psychedelic medicine trials are functionally unblinded and should not be treated as true double-blind RCTs; implied call that their 'double-blind' evidence will not hold up to scrutiny.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.

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