Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“You're going to pull that trigger. More often than not. And that's about a thousand times a year.”
· American Tornado: The Reasonable Officer Standard, Revisited · substack podcast

Same 2020 policing transcript. The author argues that police called to mental health crises, armed and told to protect themselves with no consequence for shooting, will pull the trigger more often than not, about a thousand times a year, and that Black mentally ill people are more likely to be killed.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.