Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Report or scoop

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Report or scoop

“Obesity medicine like semeglutide is projected to cost 15% of all American Health Care Spending. That is 4.6 Trillion Dollars. I’ll write that out: $690,000,000,000.00 is the Revenue for Big Health from GLP-1s.”
· Thrift Shop: How Narrow Networks With High Quality Can Win Mental Health Parity... · substack post

Part IV of the MHPAEA series (2023-07-31), aside on why payers profit from denying mental health care. The author restates a projection that GLP-1 obesity drugs (semaglutide) will cost 15% of total US health spending, computing $690 billion from a $4.6 trillion base, and calls it revenue for big health plans.

The statement passes on information rather than an expectation: cites sources ('I am told', 'sources say'), or names a date for another organization's internal action (layoffs, hires, closures) 30 days or less ahead. Listed in the reports table with a confirmation rate, never scored.