Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“We are approaching the “leftover loss threshold.” We are closer and closer to the asymptote of unbelievable suffering in our experience.”
· "The Mental Health Crisis" ...Crisis · substack post

Essay on the 'mental health crisis' as a crisis of hopelessness. Using the TV show The Leftovers (2% of people vanish, 2000/100,000) as an 'unimaginable loss' benchmark, the author says US death and despair rates (2021 death rate 1043/100,000; considering-suicide estimate 4015/100,000) are approaching that threshold.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.