Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“As recently as 2020, academics were predicting there would be no problems with the staffing of emergency medicine: ... Rarely do we read more damning words than “conservative estimate”— it is the academic version of Jim Cramer’s telling you Silicon Valley Bank is a top 10-pick in February 2023.”
· Where There is Smoke: Emergency Medicine's Disaster Match Previews Private Equity Funded Chaos in Healthcare · substack post

The author's response to the 2020 projection of a 20-30% EM physician oversupply by 2030: he compares it to Jim Cramer's SVB pick just before that bank failed, implying the oversupply forecast will prove badly wrong (shortage, not surplus).

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.