True · Brier 0.02
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 1 May 2023 · owen-0455
Quote
“Notably, the likelihood that in-office visits will immediately return for everybody everywhere is low. ... I am confident about that statement because I understand that somebody would probably lose their job if that's what happened.”
Prediction that the DEA will not let the in-person visit requirement for controlled-substance prescribing snap back for all telehealth patients when the PHE ends May 11, 2023. Reasoning: organizational self-preservation at the DEA; a snap-back would be a public health disaster with congressional hearings.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- DEA extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for controlled-substance prescribing past the PHE end
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 11 May 2023 Stated · “immediately (at the PHE end); on May 11”
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › D · “the likelihood that in-office visits will immediately return for everybody everywhere is low” · denialA statement that the event will not happen. Its probability on the event side is 1 minus the bin value. Method ›
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- denial, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0014 · deadline 11 May 2023 · bin D
Registry entry
DEA issues a rule or order that extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for prescribing controlled substances beyond the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency.
TRUE on the Federal Register publication date (or the DEA announcement date, if earlier) of a temporary rule or order that extends the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities for prescribing controlled substances beyond the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, so that the Ryan Haight Act in-person visit requirement does not return for telehealth patients at the PHE end. A proposed rule is not an extension. FALSE when the flexibilities expire at the PHE end with no such rule or order published, and FALSE at the deadline when no extension appears in the Federal Register. Resolution source: the Federal Register.
Resolution source: Federal Register
Readings: 'The Ryan Haight Act returns', 'in-office visits return for everybody everywhere' and an 'instant' return to in-person providers are read as the in-person requirement applying again to all telehealth controlled-substance patients at the PHE end.; Any DEA rule or order that continues remote prescribing of controlled substances without an in-person visit past the PHE end counts as an extension.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- True
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 11 May 2023
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 9 May 2023 · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Criterion: the FR publication date, or the earlier DEA announcement date, of a temporary rule or order extending the COVID-era telemedicine flexibilities past the PHE end so the Ryan Haight in-person requirement did not return. DEA and SAMHSA announced the 'Temporary Extension of COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescription of Controlled Medications' on 2023-05-09; it was published 2023-05-10 (88 FR 30037, Docket DEA-407) and took effect 2023-05-11, the PHE end date, keeping the full flexibilities through 2023-11-11 with a one-year grace period to 2024-11-11 for relationships formed by then. Date set to the DEA announcement, 2023-05-09, as the criterion directs. The dea.gov page returned HTTP 403 to automated fetching; its date is fixed by the URL path, the search index and the AAMC item of 2023-05-12 ('On May 9 ... published'), and its content by the FR text.
- Evidence
- Temporary Extension of COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescription of Controlled Medications; Temporary rule, 88 FR 30037 (Docket DEA-407) · 10 May 2023
- Temporary Extension of COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescription of Controlled Medications (full text, 88 FR 30037-30043) · 10 May 2023
- DEA, SAMHSA Extend COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities for Prescribing Controlled Medications for Six Months While Considering Comments from the Public · 9 May 2023
- DEA and SAMHSA Temporarily Extend COVID-19 Telemedicine Flexibilities · 12 May 2023
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- 0.02 = (0.87 − 1)²
- RestatementsAll of one person's items on one registry event. A cluster is one observation in every metric, so a claim repeated six times still gets one vote. Method ›
- owen-0454owen-0457owen-0458
Adversarial recheck
escalated (date): The criterion fixes the date at the DEA announcement date when it is earlier than Federal Register publication. The resolver used DEA's press release of 2023-05-09 on the temporary rule (filed 2023-05-09, published 2023-05-10, effective 2023-05-11). DEA made an earlier public announcement: the Administrator's statement of 2023-05-03 (dea.gov, dated in its URL and quoted by K&L Gates and trade press; dea.gov refuses automated fetches) said DEA had received a record 38,000 comments and 'we have decided to extend the current flexibilities while we work to find a way forward'. Read as the DEA announcement of the extension, the first-true date is 2023-05-03. Read strictly, the statement announced a decision but no rule or order, and the rule was first announced on 2023-05-09. The criterion does not say which announcement counts. The state is unaffected; the date needs a ruling.
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions