Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“This would tank their revenue source. No more paper fees, every clinic is making 2500+ more dollars every time they do a treatment for somebody with depression, and you have cut the spigot of revenue into a publicly traded company, which on the next earnings call would have to report that they lost a bunch of money.”
· Arbitrage: Hard to Find in Finance, and Easy to Find in Healthcare? · substack post

Thought experiment: buy puts on Neuronetics, then spend $100m to give 1,000 free TMS machines to clinics using Neuronetics devices. The author says this would tank Neuronetics' per-treatment fee revenue and force a loss report at the next earnings call; 'Assuming it craters the company entirely, you'd walk away with $17 million' ($117.5m if the share price went to zero).

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.