Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 21 Feb 2023 · owen-0318
Quote
Commitment (own venture)
“The Frontier Psychiatrists is a newsletter for our life and complex times. And it’s probably going to pay off if you subscribe. But the PPV for that isn’t perfect”
Sign-off after the screening and Bayesian explainer: the author says subscribing to The Frontier Psychiatrists will probably pay off, then undercuts it with a positive-predictive-value joke.
The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.