Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“This is the absolute worst combination for performance enhancement and would be expected to result in high initial engagement but then significant churn of users growing bored as the novelty wears off.”
· Connection is the Crown Jewel of Social Audio, not Gems · substack post

Greenroom gems (Spotify) as designed in July 2021: lowest possible standard (no real value) with highest confidence of obtaining them (press a button at a fixed interval), framed via Claude Steele's expectation/performance study raised by Matt Wallaert. The author predicts high initial engagement then significant user churn, and notes their own Greenroom use already dropped off.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.