Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“If we apply this principle to the social audio world, it is possible that the addition of gems, stars or other outward reward systems could make people less likely to want to participate on a platform despite rich conversations happening on them.”
· Connection is the Crown Jewel of Social Audio, not Gems · substack post

Applying panelist Matt Wallaert's point that extrinsic rewards degrade intrinsic motivation: gamification via Greenroom gems (Spotify) and Facebook stars could reduce participation on social audio platforms. Followed by: if extrinsic rewards become the driving force, 'we are in trouble'.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.