Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 10 Aug 2026 · doblin-0270

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“Two years after FDA rejected the initial application for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD, Resilient's new NDA is being submitted without a new Phase 3 study.”
· MAPS Responds to Report of Progress for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD with FDA · article

Doblin states the refiled application carries no new Phase 3 trial, so no new Phase 3 primary result is coming.

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.

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