Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“Considering that tens of millions of people have been taking MDMA for more than 40 years, we already know the risk profile very well. So, the key factor is whether we obtain statistically significant results.”
· The Future of MDMA: Phase 3 and Beyond · article

Doblin says the only real question for the first Phase 3 trial is whether it reaches statistical significance, because safety is already known.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.