Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

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Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 6 Nov 2020 · doblin-0120

Quote

“While fewer than 100 subjects decrease the likelihood of statistical significance, the outstanding results of the interim analysis suggest that even with just 90 subjects, we have a very good chance of obtaining statistical significance.”
· Reflecting On MAPS' 34-Year History and What's Ahead – Dr. Bronner's (by Rick Doblin) · own post

Dr. Bronner's blog article by Doblin. Expectation that MAPP1 reaches significance with 90 rather than 100 participants.

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