Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 2 Dec 2019 · doblin-0100

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“We won’t know how many subjects we are going to need for Phase 3 until the interim analysis of our first Phase 3 study, expected in April 2020.”
· Annual Financial Report Winter 2019 (MAPS Bulletin Vol. 29, No. 3) · own post

Interim analysis timing in the FY19 report (the projections section of the same report says March 2020).

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.

← Earlier · Later → · All statements