Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 1 Dec 2016 · doblin-0052

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“Our challenge for FY17 is to raise sufficient amounts of new, unanticipated donations to more than breakeven, as we expand into Phase 3 MDMA/PTSD research which we are currently estimating will cost $25 million (see Chart 8).”
· Annual Financial Report Fiscal Year 2015–16 (MAPS Bulletin Winter 2016) · own post

Phase 3 cost estimate of $25 million in the FY16 annual report.

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.

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