Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 1 Dec 2016 · doblin-0049

Quote

Not a forecast

“While we’re not sure how to estimate the chances that the FDA will accept our two modifications—for Breakthrough Therapy Designation and to conduct one rather than two Phase 3 trials—we’re asking for the best outcome possible.”
· From the Desk of Rick Doblin, Ph.D. – Winter 2016 (MAPS Bulletin Vol. 26, No. 3) · own post

On two requests submitted to FDA in October 2016: Breakthrough Therapy Designation and a single Phase 3 trial with the Phase 2 meta-analysis as confirmatory. Doblin explicitly declines to estimate the odds.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.

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